Indonesia Weather Agency Warns El Niño Expected to Continue Into Early 2027

JAKARTA, July 30 - Indonesia saw a sharp rise in potential fire areas in July as El Niño conditions strengthened nationwide, the head of the country’s weather agency said Thursday, adding that the climate pattern is expected to persist into early 2027.

Here are more details:

• More than 5,000 hotspots were identified as of July 29, a significant increase compared with past El Niño years in 2015, 2019 and 2023, agency official Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said during an online briefing. The provinces of West Kalimantan, South Papua and Riau reported the most hotspots.
• As of mid-July 2026, 54.5% of Indonesia’s seasonal zones had moved into the dry season, which is forecast to peak in August, unchanged from an earlier projection, agency chief Teuku Faisal Fathani told the same briefing.
• The threat of forest and land fires is expected to be highest from August to September, especially on Sumatra and Kalimantan, before gradually easing from October to November when increased rainfall is expected to return to some regions.
• "The key period for forest and land fires is expected from July through September 2026, making stepped-up monitoring and surveillance in high-risk areas essential to stop hot spots from spreading and causing broader environmental harm," Sopaheluwakan said.
• Dry periods have been recorded across much of the country, with the longest stretch without rain reaching 80 days in Purworejo regency in Central Java.
• There were 1,366 locations with dry spells lasting 21-30 days, 943 locations with 31-60 rainless days, and 70 locations where dry conditions lasted more than 60 days.
• The agency said hotspot activity has grown in West Kalimantan, raising the chance of forest and land fires and producing dense haze.
• The agency has carried out weather modification operations in several areas to lower the risk of fires and limit their impact.
• The agency had earlier urged farmers to adjust their agricultural practices to reduce risks from the extreme dry conditions expected this year.